09/20/2021, 12:45 pm EDT

East Pacific Equatorial subsurface Cooling Rapidly…NCEP CFS V2 Now Indicates STRONG La Nina Ahead

During the past 7-10 days the subsurface east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean has turned sharply cooler. Compared to last year, the amplitude of the cool signature this year is stronger than last including a less warm subsurface West Pacific in 2021. The NCEP CFS V2 identifies the cooler subsurface and applies the cooler regime to the forecast and the result is a stronger La Nina developing during quarter 4 of 2021.
09/16/2021, 6:30 am EDT

Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast For Q4/2021 Identifies Extreme Storm Risk

Extratropical storms in stronger (positive anomaly) flows tend to be stronger and move more slowly. This pattern is responsible for most instances of extreme weather including storm intensity and warmth ahead/cold behind the storm. In an effort to project where extreme storm risk is highest for each month of quarter 4 of 2021 for the U.S. and Europe the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast used to generate sensible temperature and precipitation anomalies is used.
09/11/2021, 10:16 am EDT

Texas and Mid-Atlantic Coast Tropical Threats Emerging

Several new issues have emerged in the tropics – all of which could impact the U.S. The first is Tropical Disturbance 94L. This system will enter the Bay of Campeche as a low-pressure system today. Over the warm waters of this region, 94L should have no problem strengthening to a tropical depression in 24 hours and a tropical storm within 36-48 hours.