Inevitable is the likelihood of the feared polar vortex pattern in January 2022. Why? Simply stated, there is precedent for persistent high-amplitude high-pressure ridge areas forming over large regions of much warmer than normal SSTA during the past 10 years in the winter season. Implied by the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) are high-amplitude high-pressure ridge areas across very warm regions of SSTA just east of the Dateline and across western and central North Atlantic. In-between the two ridge areas, the atmosphere (always looking for balance) compensates by allowing a cold upper trough (polar vortex) to form over central North America.

Of interest is a steady negative phase of the Asia/Bering Sea/North America (-ABNA) index coupled with a steady negative phase of the West Pacific oscillation (-WPO). The potential result is very cold weather in the 11-15-day period.

A rare combination of historic wet and very warm climate was observed AUG/SEP/OCT 2021 in the U.S. The wet/very warm pattern was propelled by anomalous warm SSTA off the Northeast U.S. Coast to the northern Atlantic.

The monthly Climate Impact Company ENSO Outlook indicates ongoing La Nina will strengthen, peak in DEC/JAN and dissipate by MAR/APR of next year. Typical of La Nina, a cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation coincides and enhances the La Nina climate.