The latest 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast by ECM unloads heavy rain on Argentina. The wet forecast is supported, at least through the next 10 days, by an upper-level low-pressure trough off the Chilean Coast where SSTA continue much above normal adding to the risk of potential significant rainfall.

About 75% of the U.S. is in a dry-to-drought soil moisture condition as meteorological spring arrives. Combining the month of February during 2000, 2012, and 2025 yields a similar Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) regime to FEB-26.

The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates an evolving storm track stretching across the Mediterranean Sea and reaching the Middle East. The wet weather pattern which also affects North Africa is supported by an elongated upper-level low-pressure trough.

A major high wind event extends from the Northern Rockies to the Midwest U.S. today and tonight featuring wind gusts above hurricane force in the northwest Great Plains today, near 70 mph Midwest tonight, and gusting 55-65 mph in the Ohio Valley midday tomorrow. A second storm brings wind gusts to 45-60 mph Sunday night across the Midwest and Ohio Valley shifting across the Northeast Corridor with severe storms on Monday.