ECM has carried a wet bias with their 15-day operational outlooks throughout mid-to-late spring and early summer. Recently, GFS wet bias has (also) increased and is similar to ECM. Presented is an excellent opportunity for machine learning forecasts to compete with GFS and ECM as they may understand the wet bias and make adjustments to the operational forecast.

Yesterday’s year ahead climate forecast for North America reveals a dry climate pattern setting up across the northwest Great Plains to the Ohio Valley during APR/MAY/JUN 2025 expanding northward across the Canadian Prairies during JUL/AUG/SEP 2025. The dry pattern is accompanied by anomalous heat and implies potential for a large drought developing during the 2025 warm season.

Typically, La Nina brings wet weather to Eastern Australia. The daily Nino34 SSTA descends to -0.85C and La Nina onset is imminent. Short-term heavy rains are in the forecast for Coastal Queensland. However, the week 2-4 outlook (from ECM) is widespread drier and hotter than normal across Eastern Australia, very different from a typical La Nina climate.

A strong positive phase Asia-Bering Sea-North America (+ABNA) index emerges over the next 2 weeks and cools the North Pacific which leads to (NOAA) La Nina onset and intensity increase, a warming of North America and soaking atmospheric river into the North America West Coast.