La Nina trajectories for later 2024 are not developing yet. The southern oscillation index is stubbornly in an El Nino phase so far in August after marginal El Nino-like observations in July and June. The problem is surface pressure in the tropical East Pacific is not rising sufficiently and surface pressure in the far western Pacific tropics remains at normal level rather than lowering typical of La Nina.

A cold air mass has extended into South Brazil this morning. ECMWF temperature anomalies indicate departures from normal of up to 20C below normal in some areas. Scattered reports of <0C are reported across parts of the Southern Brazil coffee growing areas.

The hottest July on record was observed in California. An upper-level ridge in-between a low-pressure area in the central Great Plains and south of Alaska enhanced by the influence of a marine heat wave shifting into the northeast Pacific were catalysts to the record heat.

The southern Great Plains remain at risk of flash drought through late August due to mostly dry and potentially very hot weather. The Southwest U.S. including Texas is also very hot and dry.