About 75% of the U.S. is experiencing dry-to-drought conditions. Impactful wetter trend is occurring in the Great Lakes region and vicinity in March while most of the dry soil zones are missing important precipitation. The 15-day outlook for the U.S. offers significant rainfall in the Mid-south States, more wet weather for the soaking wet Great Lakes region, but is mostly dry and shifting drier for the western Great Plains where drought is forecast to expand during late spring.

The North Atlantic basin is marginally warmer than normal (+0.33C) and similar with this time last year. However, in the lower latitudes, the Caribbean Sea, and main development region (MDR) are somewhat cooler than last year at this time. The Gulf of Mexico basin is near +0.4C although nearly 1C cooler than one month ago. Upper ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico and main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes is second coolest in the 2013-26 climatology.

Tropical Storm Narelle rests over the coastal northwest portion of Australia soon to move offshore and begin to redevelop. In 4-5 days, Narelle reaches category-2 or category-3 intensity moving into the northwest coast of Western Australia. Through 10 days, the West Coast region of Australia is very wet.

The wetter pattern change begins to emerge in the 11-15-day period, has developed in the 16-20-day period, and expands in the 16-30-day period. The core of the heavier rain is unclear based on the latest CFS, ECM, and GC forecasts.