Here it comes…early winter weather is organizing over the Interior Northwest to the northwest Great Plains the next 1-2 days as Winter Storm Warnings are issued and will expand. Meanwhile the onset of an extreme rainfall event in the Southern U.S. is showing signs with a Flood Watch posted for southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Over-achieving morning chill in the East as Frost Advisories are issued for much of the Mid-Atlantic region.

The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead climate forecast for South America is updated. The forecast is based on a constructed analog rooted in regional SSTA regimes and their historical upper air patterns. Highlights include the likely evolution of Central Brazil drought during summer 2023-24 possibly expanding eastward during early autumn. Wet climate shifts into Northeast Argentina easing long-term drought in that region.

Deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits are often caused by lack of rainfall over a lengthy (at least 9 months) time-period. This condition generally involves drought development at the surface and potential for flash drought if a dry and anomalous hot weather pattern settles over the area. Dramatic events are inspired by these conditions.

Sign of a long-term dry climate, deep layer soil moisture deficits identify where drought can intensify and where water levels/soil moisture are critically low. Manaus on the Amazon River reported their lowest river level in over one century.