The North American Multi-Ensemble (NMME) model global sea surface temperature (SSTA) anomaly forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20 identifies regions of climate influencers. The ENSO regime is neutral. There is no El Nino or La Nina for 2-4 months from now.

The season's first stratospheric warming event emerges the first halof of November peaking on November 10th and located over the northern North Atlantic basin. The most effective stratospheric warming events occur ove rthe polar region nevertheless this episode will enhance a cold pattern across North America and turn Europe stormy into mid-November.

Research produced by the Auburn University School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences updated the long-known concept of increased drought risk caused by the combination of long-term rainfall deficits often revealed in lowering deep soil moisture AND short-term rainfall deficits commonly depicted with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Using the methodology flash drought potential areas are identified in Brazil and Argentina.

Several weeks of warming in the surface and subsurface eastern equatorial Pacific signals an ENSO trend toward weak El Nino. But is this warming a head fake?