The most impressive upper level feature in the northern hemisphere since springtime has been the persistent and vigorous upper level cool and showery trough over Western Russia. Occasionally, upstream from the deep trough an amplified ridge forms to bring heat wave conditions to Europe centered on France. Otherwise the trough takes over and squashes heat and this time leads to wet weather over France next week after the torrid heat this week.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has updated their Indian Ocean Dipole outlook which indicates a robust positive phase evolving for AUG/SEP/OCT 2019.

Dynamic global SSTA forecast models including NCEP CFS V2, NMME and GFDL are suddenly forecasting La Nina cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for AUG/SEP/OCT 2019. The possible cause for this sudden change picked up by most global models is the rapid cooling off the West Coast of South America the past few weeks forced northward into the East Pacific tropics by the reactivated Humboldt Ocean Current. The just-ending El Nino warm waters shift west to the Dateline. Interestingly, if the La Nina cooling forecast is less dramatic an El Nino Modoki may form.

During the past 3 months the number of large regions of soil moisture change across the globe favored drier conditions (18) versus wetter adjustments (11). Currently, the most profound drought areas stretch across Canada which is mostly unchanged during the past 3 months except drier into Northwest Territories, northern and western Europe which expanded east into Western Russia, a strengthening intense dry region in northeast Russia and ongoing drought which gained intensity since March in southwestern Africa and much of Australia.