West/Central U.S. drought is expected to expand eastward during Q4/2022. The strongest expansion is in the Mid-south/Gulf States based on the OCT-22 to FEB-23 Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast. The U.S. drought pattern is not a surprise given the 3rd year of La Nina coupled with drought-enhancing effects of warmer than normal mid-latitude oceans. The end of 2022 drought is likely the worst since 1956.

Feared intensification of a recurving hurricane has occurred. Since midnight, the lowest pressure has collapsed from 952 to 942 MB indicating Ian is now a catastrophic category-4 major hurricane. The top wind is now near 140 mph. Hurricane force wind extends to 35-40 miles from the eye. Ian will move inland near Port Charlotte later today without much change in intensity.

Based on the ECMWF guidance, Climate Impact Company projects another half-dozen tropical cyclone events in October biased toward the Western Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas. An additional 2 or 3 hurricanes is anticipated.

Madden Julian oscillation shifts to phase_4/phase_5 and strengthens over the next 2 weeks according to ECMWF. The convection pattern in the tropics of the West Pacific suggests this pattern has already developed. An increase in West Pacific tropical cyclone activity and above normal rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia to Australia is likely. Conversely, the subsidence phase of MJO shifts across South America.