The Climate Impact Company Summer 2026 climate forecast indicates evolution of a major drought in Europe which extends to Southwest Russia. Accelerating the drought is increasing strength of anomalous heat. The forecast is based on developing strong El Nino, a prominent North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH), and emerging heatwaves in the Norwegian Sea and Mediterranean Sea.

A strong westerly wind burst (WWB) in the Pacific Ocean tropics between 140E and 160E also located across warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and robust subsurface upper ocean heat helped spawn an early season unusually strong category-5 major typhoon (Sinlaku). The ingredients helping to ignite this early season intense storm to develop are shifting eastward and will ignite El Nino in May with rapid intensification likely to follow.

Over the next few weeks, a climate pattern change featuring departing low pressure across Canada departing and being replaced by high pressure while low pressure tendency increases in the subtropical latitudes. The beginning of that pattern appears in the week 2-4 outlook. During the outlook, the U.S. loses the tendency for unusually warm weather and turns wetter while Canada shifts milder.

The outlook for week-2 ahead features heavy rain across much of Central Brazil to Northwest Argentina while Southeast Brazil is dry and hot. The wet weather moves into Northeast Brazil late month. In early May, Brazil shifts drier while wet weather regenerates in Argentina.