El Nino onset helps to inspire sharp upper-level low-pressure troughs in the subtropics to take advantage of the much warmer than normal Southeast Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical East Pacific SSTA patterns causing widespread low latitude heavy rains. Latent heat release poleward warms the atmosphere near the U.S./Canada border causing a warmer/drier pattern for the Northern U.S. later this month.

Solar Cycle 25 has passed peak and is now decelerating in intensity which will continue into solar minimum beginning in 2030. Once solar minimum is reached, solar cycle 26 begins. The APR-26 sunspot number was 79.3 and weaker than various forecast model projections.

A U.S. pattern change featuring a wetter climate, mostly affecting the Southern States, is forecast by various probabilistic and dynamic models for later this month and early meteorological summer. Required to inspire a wetter pattern is persistent negative southern oscillation (SOI) or the onset and intensification of an El Nino climate.

ECMWF broadens high pressure across the U.S. centered on the Great Plains later this month. Support from other models is favoring this solution although some AI models re-cool the East. The sensible weather is widespread anomalous warmth and increasing Great plains hot weather risk. The Southwest U.S. encounters early season clouds/thundershowers.