The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is becoming impressively cold for next week and late February with a significant colder revision since yesterday. Medium-range forecasts shift the cold across the high population of the East U.S. to increase national heating demand into late meteorological winter.

The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is updated. The forecast is valid for meteorological autumn 2025 through summer 2025-26. The forecast is based on an ENSO climate favoring La Nina, neutral Indian Ocean dipole, and the influence of marine heat waves either side of the continent. Forecast highlights include a persistent wet climate in southeastern Australia likely through next summer while next winter is warmer than normal.

Utilizing CFS V2 extended range forecasts of the stratosphere there is not an obvious sign of an emerging sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event during late FEB/early MAR. The ECM forecast is not available. HOWEVER, a major slowdown of the global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is in the forecast through mid-March. When -GLAAM occurs, the mid-latitude upper-level pattern has the tendency to produce amplified low-pressure troughs.

A large area of snow is forecast to the north of a slowly developing low pressure system, most intense off the Northeast Coast, this weekend. The NBM model forecasts 4-8 in. of snow in the Midwest which looks a bit high, and a more aggressive snowfall forecast, for New England, especially near the coast as the storm strengthens offshore early Sunday. There is a freezing rain/ice accretion risk across a large area most likely causing impacts over west-central Pennsylvania.