During February, robust warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface was observed and supports an El Nino ahead climate signal. The last months when the entire equatorial Pacific subsurface were warmer than +1.0C was observed during April-June 2023 when Nino34 SSTA was +0.88C by June on the way to +1.99C by December. Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) shifted to an El Nino supporting +0.5 in June (2023) peaking at +1.1 in December.

Prohibitive rain has drenched Central and South-central Australia in February. Parts of northeastern New south Wales and interior Western Australia were drier than normal.

Eastward shifting of the Madden Julian oscillation from north of Australia to The Dateline over the next 2 weeks is increasingly likely and with intensity which will promote expansion of the warm U.S. pattern eventually including the snowbound Northeast U.S. The Central/East-central U.S. turn wet!

Memory of the winter 2025-26 upper air pattern has featured a semi-permanent polar vortex over the Northeast U.S. Once again, another potent storm within that semi-permanent trough pattern today batters the Northeast U.S. as a blizzard.