ECMWF Forecasts a Major New England Blizzard for the Weekend!

Fig. 1: ECMWF forecasts a 954 MB low-pressure east of New England Saturday evening at 7PM. A full-tilt blizzard is observed in eastern New England if this forecast is correct.

Discussion: ECMWF forecasts a mega-storm east of New England on Saturday with minimum low-pressure of 954 MB at 7PM Saturday (Fig. 1). If this level of low-pressure occurs, hurricane force wind will be just offshore the New England Coast and hurricane force gusts will reach the coast particularly Cape Cod, possibly Cape Ann and the Maine Coast.  

Wind gusts to 55 mph would extend as far west as Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, the New Jersey Coast and much of southern New England. ECMWF indicates temperatures are in the 22-26F range from Baltimore/Washington to New York City to Boston to the coast and teens to the west of I-95.

Before the storm organizes offshore on Saturday, the Mid-Atlantic can expect widespread snows with highest amount in West Virginia and eventually the New Jersey coastline (Fig. 2). ECMWF projects 1-2 feet of snow along and east of I-95 to the coast in east/southeast New England (Fig. 3). If the ECMWF forecast track is correct, amount could exceed these levels. ECMWF is far-enough offshore for all snow although sleet will mix-in at the coast.

Coastal flooding is immense with this storm anywhere on the east coast of New England but particularly areas open to a northeast to north fetch.

High wind follows the storm on Sunday slowing clean-up operations. ECMWF sweeps arctic air across the region as this storm departs with well below zero wind chill through Sunday night.

Fig. 2: The Friday/Friday night snowfall forecast across the Mid-Atlantic region.

Fig. 3: The Saturday/Saturday night snowfall forecast across the Northeast.