Adjusting Heating Demand Forecasts for Winter 2025-26 in U.S. and Europe
12/10/2025, 11:56 am EST
Turning Colder into Early January Europe
12/12/2025, 9:49 am EST
Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT
Issued: Thursday December 11, 2025
Highlight: Heavy to extreme rainfall forecast for Brazil.
Fig. 1-2: The 7-day percent of normal rainfall across South America and daily soil moisture anomalies analysis.
Discussion: Wet weather continues to emerge and intensify across Brazil (Fig. 1). The rainfall is making a difference in soil moisture as East Brazil loses their wet signature (Fig. 2). Additional heavy to excessive rainfall is on the way! The GFS indicates heavy to excessive rainfall across East Paraguay and eastward through the weekend (Fig. 3). Next week, a large area of heavy rain is projected by GFS across Central and East Brazil (Fig. 4). Heavy thunderstorms affect Northeast Argentina. In the 11-15-day period, both ECM and GFS (Fig. 5) project massive heavy rain for Brazil. The AI Graph Cast maintains the wet pattern in the 16-20-day period (Fig. 6).
Fig. 3-6: GFS 15-day Brazil rainfall amount forecast plus the 16-20-day rainfall amount outlook from AI Graph Cast.