Soil Moisture Conditions/15-Day Outlooks Most Crop Areas

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Friday August 28, 2026

Highlight: An update for all crop areas.

Fig. 1-2: Daily U.S. soil moisture anomalies analysis and August (so far) change.

Discussion: Extremes characterize U.S. soil moisture in August. Flash drought has developed across Oklahoma and vicinity (Fig. 1). Drought is also intensifying across the Upper Midwest. The Midwest has shifted dramatically much wetter during late summer (Fig. 2).

Elsewhere, late August soil moisture conditions indicate large drought in Europe (Fig. 3), the northern fringe eroding due to recent rainfall. In South America, dry-to-drought conditions are maintained in Brazil while wet soils persist across Northern Argentina (Fig. 4). Drought is evolving across the southern half of India (Fig. 5) and western/eastern Australia (Fig, 6).

Fig. 3-4: Daily soil moisture anomalies analysis for Europe and South America.

Fig. 5-6: Daily soil moisture anomalies analysis for Asia and Australia.

The 15-day outlook in the U.S. features steady anomalous heat extending northward into the U.S. Corn Belt (Fig. 7) with most of the hot zone receiving very little rainfall (Fig. 8). The Upper Midwest also maintains a dry pattern. West and North Europe is prohibitively wet with some erosion of the northern drought area likely (Fig. 9). However, Southern Europe is mostly dry with late summer heat. Some patchy rains are possible in the Black Sea region. In South America, the wet pattern in Northern Argentina shifts to Eastern Brazil and is expansive as suggested by ECM earlier this week (Fig. 10). Parts of the North and South Coastal regions of Australia receive some rainfall in the latest 15-day outlook while elsewhere is rain-free (Fig. 11). Northern India (and northward) are frequently very wet while dryness enhancing drought to the south continues (Fig. 12).

Fig. 7-8: GFS 15-day temperature anomalies and percent normal precipitation forecast for North America.

Fig. 9-10: AIFS 15-day percent normal precipitation forecast for Europe and South America.

Fig. 11-12: GFS 15-day percent normal precipitation forecast for Australia and India.

Week 3-4 outlooks indicate some wet weather may extend from the Southwest U.S. into the central and southern Great Plains. The summertime hot weather pattern rebuilds over Central and Southern Europe in the 16-30-day period. Southeast/East Brazil rains expand westward. Australia is mostly dry.