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Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Australia
Issued: Sunday, October 26, 2025
Highlight: Despite surprise heat and dryness of October, models look wetter/cooler for November.
Charts of the day: Dry October East Australia; Recently very hot. New rains.
Discussion: October is surprisingly dry across much of Australia especially in the East. Wet weather is confined to the northwest to south-central coast of the continent. Anomalous heat has dominated October with impressive anomalous daytime heat across East Australia. The East Australia heatwave fades due to sudden heavy rains to finish October.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid November 2-9, 2025: Wet North Coast; Still very warm East Coast.
Discussion: ECM indicates a longwave trough extending across West Australia causing a wet pattern across the North and Northeast while the South Coats is cool and East Coast warm. Operational models are warmer across the East.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid November 9-16, 2025: Wetter/cooler.
Discussion: ECM projects a wet regime inspired by an upper trough during mid-November. Additionally, the model projects a cool regime in Western Australia and lack of anomalous heat. AI models are cooler.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid November 16-23, 2025: (New) wet/cool persistence.
Discussion: The outlook shifts cooler with wet weather on the North Coast and East-central continent.