Watching The Gulf of Mexico for Early Season TC Risk
05/23/2025, 9:12 am EDT
Mid-south U.S. Trends Wetter; Looks Wet for June
05/29/2025, 3:54 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Europe/Western Russia
Issued: Tuesday, May 27, 2025
Highlight: Incoming Northwest Eurasia trough.
Chart of the day: Emerging negative phase of the Scandinavia trough.
Discussion: Over the weekend, GFS indicated potential for an emerging chilly trough across Northwest Eurasia in the 11-15-day period. Last night, ECM joined forces with GFS as forecast confidence increases dramatically. The negative phase of the Scandinavia Index supports the presence of the projected Northwest Eurasia trough by the operational models.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 8-14, 2025: Wetter/cooler into Europe.
Discussion: ECM “weeklies” project an upper trough into Northwest Europe. The trough may be stronger than indicated. Northwest Europe shifts cooler and wetter during the period. Anomalous warmth is impressive to the east of the upper trough. The Black Sea region is warm and dry.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 15-21, 2025: Lingering Europe low pressure trough.
Discussion: The upper trough remains over Central/North Europe causing cooler than indicated weather although Southwest Europe is dry and hot. The Black Sea region to Southwest Russia remain warmer than normal.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 22-28, 2025: Southwest Europe and Southwest Russia dry and warm.
Discussion: Anomalous warmth and dryness are dominant Southwest Europe to Southwest Russia.