During the past 2-4 weeks waters south and southeast of Greenland have cooled by 2-5C. Return of the semi-permanent (2013-2022) North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is generating. The cooler SSTA change foreshadows an evolving potent upper-level low-pressure trough south of Greenland for the first half of November.

Wet to very wet climate has dominated southwest and interior southeast Brazil during the past 90 days. The culprit has been a semi-permanent (wet) upper-level low-pressure trough over Southeast Brazil. In Novmber, the trough becomes more migratory and forces the wetter climate into Northeast Brazil while Southern Brazil and Argentina have a tendency for drier than normal climate.

Last week excessive rainfall (6-8 in.) was observed over parts of northeast News South Wales and southeast Queensland. According to ECM, the next round of storms will deliver similar rainfall amounts focused on Victoria over the next 10 days causing more flash flooding.

The North Atlantic basin is forecast to maintain an unusually high amount of convection mostly in the deep tropics extending well into November. The risk of additional tropical cyclones is high but any storms that form will stay out to sea.