Typical of tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin, late season activity is most favorable in the western basin. Outer North Atlantic activity has a tendency to diminish although anomalous warm SST is likely to sustain tropical convection in the eastern tropics well into November. ECM indicates Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico risk areas through October (and early November).

The Australian rainfall pattern is shifting very dry. Last week, coastal areas susceptible to wet weather received little or no rain. Drying soil moisture regions is accelerating due to the lack of rain and recent expansive anomalous heat. However, a pattern change is ahead. After additional dry and hot weather for another week or so, a sharp cold front brings heavy rain to Southeast Australia mid-next week.

The 60-day rainfall pattern (since July 24th) has featured mostly drier than normal climate across much of India while areas of wet weather affected China in between excessive hot/dry spells. The prevailing upper air pattern featured low-pressure wet weather zones from the Philippines toward Japan and east of Caspian Sea with general high-pressure in-between, delivering a mostly dry and hot climate to India with patchy rains for China while Northern China was quite hot.

An amplified high-pressure ridge has emerged in Brazil triggering an expansive heatwave in which much of the nation is exposed to >100F risk. The super-hot weather is likely to last for a while as the high-pressure ridge holds into October. Dry weather is focused on central and northern Brazil during the hot weather pattern.