A review of the just-issued NOAA/CPC long-lead probabilistic climate forecast for DEC-23 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24 with the anomaly projections from Climate Impact Company plus initial insight into the summer 2024 forecast. NOAA and CIC are similarly warm in the East for winter 2023-24 while CIC is colder West. Both forecasts agree on a vigorous (mostly) Southern U.S. storm track.

Last week widespread wet weather was observed across Australia. The wet weather is a surprise given the dry climate usually produced by El Nino and certainly evident in October. Latest week 2-4 forecast for Australia maintains the wetter than normal regime into December.

Most evident in the 6-10-day period, the subtropical ridge delivering a hot and mostly dry 1-5-day forecast splits in the 6-10-day period to allow tropical moisture to shift across Central Brazil in a forecast change. In the 11-15-day period, Central Brazil trends wetter for the same reason.

The region of primary drought concern for summer 2023-24 is across Northern Brazil. Deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomalies identify this risk area. Recently, the deep layer soil moisture deficit region has expanded southward into Central Brazil warranting drought concern for Brazil’s northern crop areas. During the past 7-10 days, the deep layer soil moisture deficit has eased slightly.