The tropics become busier producing a tropical cyclone risk each of the next 4 weeks including more than one event in at least 2 of 4 weeks. The Gulf of Mexico should become more active during the period. Peak of season is around September 10th!

Erin is forecast to steadily increase intensity today approaching 29C water temperatures and become a hurricane by tonight. The NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast brings Erin to a major hurricane tomorrow night and is trending farther west of 70W compared to previous forecasts citing the Google Deep Mind AI model. Erin will travel across 30C-31C water early next week which supports intensification to a category-4 major hurricane, somewhat stronger than forecast by NOAA/NHC.

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast valid for September 2025 through January 2026 is based on influence of climate associated with developing weak La Nina and the presence of a marine heatwave off the Argentina Coast. The outlook worsens Brazil drought except for northeast Brazil. Drought in Argentina also worsens.

Beginning next week, the hot weather affecting the East breaks down, and near normal temperatures prevail the remainder of the month. CIC agrees with ECMWF that anomalous warmth regenerates in September (AI and other operational models are cooler in the East during early September).