A large stretch (from the Dateline to tropical Africa) of tropical convection associated with the Madden Julian oscillation coupled with high latitude high pressure blocking (negative arctic oscillation) have combined to produce more extreme weather events. Included is a record 87F observed in Northwest Russia this past Sunday.

A strong negative North Atlantic oscillation climate pattern has emerged and may last much of the remainder of meteorological spring. Implications include more wet weather for the U.S. and a general cool thermal regime and potentially prohibitive rains in Eastern Europe/Western Russia.

El Nino may weaken by July according to yesterday's Bureau of Meteorology/Australia forecast. Modern-day analogs indicate much of the U.S. is warmer than normal during JUL/AUG/SEP when this ENSO condition occurs. Interestingly, the Corn Belt tends to be dry.

The European Drought Observatory identifies widening dry soils across Southern Europe. However, forecast models indicate beneficial rains developing across this region into early May.