A spike in solar activity around the beginning of 2021 descended sharply in February. However, the overall trend of solar activity is upward as Solar Cycle 25 has initiated.

As a reminder, the reason the MJO is tracked is due to its presence with intensity almost always leads to weather extremes including major storms at the longitude of the MJO location frequently with upstream/downstream (in the middle latitudes) effects. The arctic outbreak in February was triggered by emergence of an active MJO pattern near the Dateline.

The preliminary 2021 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is attached. The outlook is more active than normal featuring 16 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 122. The climate conditions feature neutral ENSO and a North Atlantic tropical/subtropical basin not quite as warm as last year.

Not surprisingly the GFS Operational model finishes last in skill scores for forecast 2-meter temperatures in the 6-10 and 11-15 day period across North America. The European Ensemble edges out the American Ensemble for best scores. data provided by CWG/Storm Vista WX Models.