The morning medium-range forecast indicates a westward shift in the East U.S. mid-winter cold pattern. Support for the westward shift of the cold is most apparent in the 8-14/11-15-day period when the Pacific North America index flips to negative phase and the North Atlantic oscillation becomes positive. The implied eastern warm-up is suppressed by snow cover.

The 2011 and 2021 ENSO/PDO/AMO regimes are strikingly similar. In January of the following year, this regime produced nationally dry soils in January 2012 which was followed by a bad drought during the following summer. Climate Impact Company is closely following a similar climate pattern into early 2022 which could lead to important drought for summertime ahead!

A strong subsurface warm anomaly known as a Kelvin Wave continues to shift eastward in the equatorial Pacific eroding cool waters needed to sustain La Nina. The 2021-22 La Nina is definitely weakening!

An arctic outbreak plows into a slow-moving frontal system in the Central U.S. middle of next week and lays a nearby carpet of snow for the air mass to shift south into Texas with limited moderation causing two mornings (next FRI/SAT A.M.) of temperatures in the frigid 20's!