Checking U.S. and Europe/Western Russia Soil Moisture and Rainfall Pattern
05/14/2025, 8:14 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
North America
Issued: Monday, May 19, 2025
Highlight: Southwest to North-central U.S. dry pattern; Late spring chill in East eases in June.
Charts of the day: Current U.S. soil moisture and May trend.
Discussion: Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals strengthening drought centered on Nebraska/Iowa while the Southwest U.S. drought remains immense. However, most notable during late spring is the dramatic wet change during May in the Gulf States and East U.S.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 25-31, 2025: Cool East ends May.
Discussion: Cool upper trough in the East to finish May. Heavy rains are expected on the Gulf Coast, the heaviest Corpus Christi to Mobile. The West and northern states are mostly drier/warmer than normal.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 1-7, 2025: Mid-south to Texas stays wet.
Discussion: ECM (and CFS V2) warm the Central U.S., maintain warmth in the West, and moderate the East to near normal. Wet weather persists from the northwest Gulf States to the Mid-south U.S.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 8-14, 2025: Nationally, warmer.
Discussion: Second week into June brings a summerlike warm regime across most of the U.S. Wet weather lingers in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.