High wind events Northwest and Northeast today!
11/05/2025, 7:20 am EST
Historical Cold Peaks Monday/Tuesday Midwest to Southeast U.S.
11/09/2025, 1:13 pm EST
Climate Impact Company Early U.S. Notes
Issued: Friday November 7, 2025
Highlight: Colder HDD call for later this month and December (and winter).
Discussion: In the extended range, building cold is indicated for the U.S. The latest 6-week U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast maintains the warm spike for Nov. 14-20 followed by a colder trend (by operational model consensus) for the week ending Nov. 27th (Fig. 1). The new week 4-6 forecast indicates December turns cold especially across the Northern States including the high energy demand Northeast U.S. The latest ECMWF week 4-6 upper air forecast supports the cold HDD projections as a chilly (snow producing) upper trough originates in the Northeast and elongates westward along the U.S./Canada Border (Fig. 2-4). The latest Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight monthly HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season maintains the warm November. However, the monthly forecasts are adjusted significantly colder as December snow cover is maintained through winter to bias the (winter) climate colder (Fig. 5).
Fig. 1: The U.S. 1-6-week gas population weight HDD forecast is cold in the extended range.
Fig. 2-4: The ECMWF “weeklies” U.S. upper air forecast for weeks 4-6 ahead.
Fig. 5: The Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season is adjusted colder in today’s update.