North Atlantic Basin 2024 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast – Update 1
04/29/2024, 7:49 pm EDT
Cooler Pattern Western Russia (After Record Warm April)
05/03/2024, 5:27 am EDT
Charts of the day: Past 7 days rainfall; 10-day outlook.
Discussion: Extremely dry weather was observed the last week of April across South-central to Coastal Brazil. The 10-day outlook maintains the dryness with high temperatures consistently in the 32-35C range. The dry pattern widens during the period.
Week-2 Valid May 12-18, 2024: Worsening Brazil drought.
Discussion: Strong thermal contrast across (cool) Argentina and (hot) Brazil next week continues into mid-May. The dryness in Brazil coupled with late season heat is a concern as drought worsens.
Week-3 Valid May 19-25, 2024: More Brazil dryness and heat.
Discussion: The anomalous heat and dryness in Brazil will continue as feedback between widening drought and sustaining high pressure aloft strengthens.
Week-4 Valid May 26-June 1, 2024: Dryness in Brazil shifts slightly westward.
Discussion: Core of the Brazil dryness shifts slightly westward while anomalous heat remains in the ECM forecast.