In Australia, an unusually intense “renegade” low pressure area is forecast off the Southeast Australia Coast by early Thursday with central pressure 983 MB. Pressure that low will cause minimal hurricane wind gust potential across eastern Victoria and south coastal New South Wales. In this zone, 2-5 in. of rain is expected. The 15-day outlook continues to project a confined area of very heavy rain across Southeast Brazil.

400 river level gauges are below “low water” on the Mississippi River due to the 2023 drought in parts of the Central U.S. The condition which is threatening the water supply for October harvest and barge travel along the Mississippi is worsening. The latest 15-day outlook by ECM ENS indicates mostly dry weather continuing in the Mississippi Valley.

Typical of tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin, late season activity is most favorable in the western basin. Outer North Atlantic activity has a tendency to diminish although anomalous warm SST is likely to sustain tropical convection in the eastern tropics well into November. ECM indicates Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico risk areas through October (and early November).

The Australian rainfall pattern is shifting very dry. Last week, coastal areas susceptible to wet weather received little or no rain. Drying soil moisture regions is accelerating due to the lack of rain and recent expansive anomalous heat. However, a pattern change is ahead. After additional dry and hot weather for another week or so, a sharp cold front brings heavy rain to Southeast Australia mid-next week.