The rainfall pattern during the past 30 days is very wet in Southeast Brail/Northeast Argentina and Western Brazil while most of the remaining sections of Brazil are dry. The influence of this regime plus the longer-term climate is to produce deep (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomaly deficits across Northern Brazil, Southwest Brazil, and Interior East Brazil.

ECM “weeklies” indicate development of a stormy and cold upper trough in the Central/East U.S. as the middle third of January arrives. Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecasts support this projection. Recent positive phase reflection index also supports this potential pattern change.

November 2023 ranked 19th warmest on record given the 129-year climatology. New Mexico and Nebraska ranked MUCH ABOVE normal temperature while the remainder of the West and Central States were warmer than normal. The South and East U.S. were close to normal.

Reginal wetter changes (10) outnumbered the drier changes (7) during SEP/OCT/NOV 2023. Drought worsened in Brazil and Western Australia to Western Indonesia while dry zones steadily emerged over the East-central U.S. and Interior South Africa. Wetter zones were most profound in Northeast Africa to Saudi Arabia in response to the positive phase Indian ocean dipole (+IOD).