The Climate Impact Company North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast of seasonal activity for 2021 is updated. The seasonal forecast activity is lowered slightly although the number of intense hurricanes increases from 2 to 3. The ACE index lowers sharply to 106 (from 127).

During neutral ENSO, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is normally active. During northern hemisphere summer, influence of the convection phase of the MJO causes an increase in wet monsoon moisture and tropical cyclone risk in neighboring longitudes. The ECMWF 14-day MJO forecast indicates anomalous convection in the tropical West Pacific (now) shifts eastward and across the tropical North Atlantic in 8-14 days.

The Americas are indicating their greatest exposure to drought in crop areas in the NOAA daily global soil moisture anomaly analysis. Areas at risk include Canadian and U.S. spring wheat, the northern U.S. corn-growing region and far southwest Great Plains wheat zone. In South America a major Brazilian drought is affecting their second corn crop, wheat and soybeans. There is limited exposure to drought risk (for now) across Eurasia and Australian dryness is away from crop areas.

A dramatic warm-up in the upper ocean across the equatorial Pacific Ocean in April. Indicated is any support for La Nina 2020-21 is now gone. Somehow the Nino SSTA regions across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are slightly cool to within the La Nina threshold off the northwest coast of South America.