A wet pattern has developed over the past week across the Brazil drought region. The outlooks maintain the wet pattern featuring some excessive rains in the 10-day outlook. The ECMWF "weeklies" maintain the wet pattern through the first third of November. Significant easing the drought conditions is likely!

The Nino SSTA regions are locked-in on neutral phase. There is no shift in trend to indicate La Nina onset. In the subsurface, the anomalous cool water to fuel La Nina is diminishing. Most of the cool water is between 100 and 150 meters with about half the strength of several weeks ago.

Marine heat waves continue to produce significant influence on where semi-permanent high-pressure areas form alongside their compensating low-pressure areas. Many MHW’s are ongoing in the northern hemisphere, the strongest east of Japan. Regenerating MHW’s are likely during the southern hemisphere summer in the subtropical/middle latitude oceans. The extensive warming of the ocean caused by MHW’s is likely suppressing La Nina onset.