Major Hurricane Humberto disrupts steering currents associated with the North Atlantic subtropical ridge tomorrow enabling westerly flow aloft to turn both Humberto and Imelda northeastward away from the U.S. East Coast. Tropical storm force winds affect Bermuda from outer bands of Humberto tomorrow and again later this week as Imelda passes.

The late summer season drought in the Midwest States is strengthening. Dry-to-drought conditions have also developed and are intensifying in the Gulf Coast and Northeast regions. The late summer new drought generation has caused a shift in U.S. regions observing drought from 45% in mid-August to nearly 70% during late September.

The primary weather effects/hazards on the Southeast U.S. Coast remains heavy rain but adds a long duration strong easterly wind flow likely to raise havoc on coastal beaches with extensive erosion and inland flowing ocean water through river inlets flooding areas well inland. The onshore wind flow/accelerating water rise problem lasts well beyond the immediate storm as strong high pressure over the northeast maintains strong east wind through next week.

ECMWF forecasts heavy rain effects from Imelda early next week followed by a second event in the 11-15-day period. Each event combines for widespread flooding risk in the 15-day forecast.