The Nino34 SSTA is trending toward the La Nina threshold and subsurface waters of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific are cooling foreshadowing a stronger La Nina ahead as agreed upon by most dynamic ENSO forecast models and Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecasts.

A historic early-to-mid September heavy rain episode across East and Southeast Europe continues. The focus of this week's rain shifts to the west coast of Southeast Europe. Later this month more widespread rains are likely across the northern half of Europe.

Small but potent upper trough brings an unusually chilly air mass to Southeast Australia on Sunday producing exceptional cold mornings on Sunday and Monday. GFS indicates <32F/0C risk into North-central New South Wales Sunday morning with -5C across the interior southeast including northeastern Victoria. On Monday morning, the cold regenerates and extends northward to near the Queensland/New South Wales border just inland from the coast.