Although Ida is weakening moving north and later northeastward an immense rain storm will emerge along the path of this storm this week due to lingering tropical characteristics into tomorrow and merging with a frontal system mid-to-late week. Widespread flash flooding will continue!

Last week the Nino34 SSTA zoomed past the La Nina threshold (-0.5C) to -0.9C. The subsurface has also significantly cooled. If this trend continues, La Nina onset would be announced by early October.

Henri weakened to a tropical storm this morning moving across cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. Henri was a bit of an under-achiever while over warm waters south and east of the Gulf Stream yesterday. Therefore the weather and storm surge into Long Island and New England still produces hazards but less so than indicated yesterday.

A wet spring is ahead for Brazil which is much-needed rainfall given the drought condition. One catalyst to the wet climate pattern is the strong negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode.