Evidence to support a dry (and hot) mid-summer climate forecast for North America in the Great Plains is increasing. The most recent NCEP CFS V2 and ECMWF “monthlies” outlook for July 2022 each indicate widespread anomalous dry climate for the entire Great Plains with disagreement for the Canadian Prairies.

An east-shifting subsurface Kelvin Wave reached the northwest coast of South America during late FEB/early MAR leading to a rapid warming of the ocean surface in the Nino12 SSTA region. The core of the ongoing La Nina regime shifts westward. However, the warming in the east, may be a sign of La Nina's demise ahead.

A warm-up off the northwest coast of South America supports the ECMWF projection of weakening La Nina and signs of El Nino in the eastern equatorial pacific toward mid-year. The ENSO signature supports drought risk for the Great Plains, East-central China and Bolivia to Uruguay.

Interestingly, drought intact over Portugal and Spain receives beneficial rainfall over the next 2 weeks. However, everywhere else in Europe is dry including most crop areas. The dryness extends to Russia. The week 3-4 outlook by ECMWF projects a warm/dry ridge over the East Europe/West Russia border. The dryness is becoming a crop issue heading toward mid-spring.