The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate outlooks for meteorological spring 2025 and winter 2025-26 is issued. The spring season is mostly cooler than normal across much of the continent with a wet bias in the East. The summer outlook reverses drier and hotter in the East.

Intense heat will spread across much of California during the next few days leading to the hottest summer 2025 event of the season. Sacramento and Burbank reach 102F THU/FRI; San Jose to 95F tomorrow; Bakersfield 108F on Friday. Farther east, Las Vegas reaches 110F and Phoenix 112F on Thursday.

The tropics become busier producing a tropical cyclone risk each of the next 4 weeks including more than one event in at least 2 of 4 weeks. The Gulf of Mexico should become more active during the period. Peak of season is around September 10th!

Erin is forecast to steadily increase intensity today approaching 29C water temperatures and become a hurricane by tonight. The NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast brings Erin to a major hurricane tomorrow night and is trending farther west of 70W compared to previous forecasts citing the Google Deep Mind AI model. Erin will travel across 30C-31C water early next week which supports intensification to a category-4 major hurricane, somewhat stronger than forecast by NOAA/NHC.