Forecasts for a 3rd consecutive La Nina year are confident. 3rd La Nina years are rare. Using the operational Nino index (ONI) for 1950-2022 yields 3 ENSO regimes (1956, 1975 and 2000) in which a 3rd consecutive La Nina year occurred. In that 3rd year of La Nina, widespread dryness affects the Central to Southeast U.S. and Brazil.

The Climate Impact Company U.S. season 1-3 ahead forecast valid for meteorological autumn 2022, winter 2022-23 and spring 2023 is issued. The forecast is based on a constructed analog (please see methodology on CIC client pages). High impact highlights include a warm autumn season featuring very dry weather in the Mid-south States. Autumn tropical cyclone risk is highest in Florida and the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Next winter is cold and snowy across the North-central U.S. while the South and East enjoy a mild season.

The intense heat in U.K. fades. However, GFS trends hotter/drier in the 15-day forecast. The anomalous heat remains widespread while shifting slightly eastward. The heat core moves into East/Southeast Europe to finish July.

Typical of Europe heatwaves, extreme heat from the African Desert is propelled northward by the subtropical ridge this time inspired by the combination of a strong Africa ITCZ and an offshore Southwest Europe low-pressure area. The southerly flow ahead of the low-pressure area guided an amplified subtropical ridge into Western Europe to deliver historic heat the past few days.