Ongoing drought risk across Argentina and Brazil as mid-meteorological summer 2024-25 has passed remains intense. Forecast models have generally been over-forecasting rainfall, especially in Brazil. During January, anomalous heat dominated Argentina. Despite periodic rainfall, mid-summer heat accelerates drying soils.

Europe/Western Russia has enjoyed a mostly warmer than normal winter so far. However, a cold air mass develops east of the Black Sea region and is forecast to back westward and produce cold air across bare ground in key agriculture areas of Southwest Russia, the Black Sea region, and East/Southeast Europe.

The overnight GFS forecast, which is not agreed upon by all models, indicated a similar look to the stratosphere as observed during mid-January which spawned the polar vortex event of January 18-20. February forecasts are generally warm for now, but cold risk for western North America is increasing based on the potential stratospheric regime middle third of February.

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to shift eastward from Maritime Continent in early February (phase_4) toward the Dateline as middle third of February arrives (phase_6). The MJO projection across the locations identified favor a warming (Pacific maritime) influence on U.S. climate.