An upper trough on the Southeast Brazil Coast as projected by climate forecasts for early calendar summer is not there. Instead, weak low pressure across Central Brazil fuels wetter than normal conditions for Central Brazil while East Brazil is trending drier. Argentina is drier and hotter than normal.

The week 2-4 outlook for Europe emphasizes a Southwest Europe and North Africa storm track with North Atlantic mild marine air flooding Europe (and Western Russia) preventing snow cover from forming to inspire cold air masses.

Building convection centered over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent initiated in early November, strengthened mid-November, and reached peak intensity during late November. During peak intensity, 2 unusually late season tropical cyclones formed including Senyar striking Western Indonesia and Ditmar moving into Southern India. Extreme rains caused historic flooding and mudslides killing 100’s in Western Indonesia with similar damage and fatalities confined to Southern India.

NOV-25 was mostly hotter/drier than normal across Central/Northeast Brazil while Argentina was temperate with patchy rain zones. In DEC-25, a pattern change is forecast. The catalyst to the pattern change is the influence on the upper air pattern of a marine heat wave (MHW) west of Chile and an evolving cool (SSTA) pool off the Central East Coast of South America