Cold Burst, After Heavy Rain, Midwest/Northeast U.S. Next Week

Fig. 1-2: The GFS rainfall amount forecast for the next 5 days and the 6-10-day period across the East U.S.

Discussion: The excessive rainfall forecast for the East-central/Mid-south U.S. is unchanged with 4 consecutive days of heavy rain and severe weather. The GFS indicates 12-15 in. of rain across the MO/KY/TN/AR region with several inches from Oklahoma City to Dallas to Dayton to Pittsburgh (Fig. 1). New to the forecast, are the heavier amounts of rain in the Carolinas early in the 6-10-day period with up to 6 in. of rain possible in eastern North Carolina (Fig. 2). The following cold remains impressive with GFS indicating morning low temperatures close to 20F below normal next TUE, WED, and THU morning from the Midwest to Northeast U.S. (Fig. 3-5). The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is a little cooler next week (Fig. 6).

Fig. 3-5: The GFS minimum temperature forecast across the East U.S. for next Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Fig. 6: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparing with 24 hours ago and the 30-year/10-year normal.