ECM Week 1-6 Outlook Suggests Peak of Tropical Cyclone Season is Around October 1st in North Atlantic

Fig. 1: ECM week 1-4 ahead precipitation anomalies across the North Atlantic tropics/subtropics.

Discussion: The 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is likely to become very active/very late. Normally, October brings relief from the tropical cyclone season but 2022 looks like the peak activity period of the season could be in early October. The ECM week 1-4 precipitation anomaly outlook valid through Sep. 26 calls for streaks of rain in the deep tropics identifying potential tropical cyclone tracks (Fig. 1). However, note how northward extension of the low-latitude wet streaks are not apparent. Implied is the model continues to be aware of very low mid-troposphere relative humidity in the central deep tropics and subtropics of the North Atlantic basin plaguing tropical cyclone development in August. An area of likely development is the Caribbean Sea where recently convection has been percolating. However, ECM does not indicate an obvious path of tropical cyclone potential into the Gulf of Mexico. The northern Gulf of Mexico wet weather pattern could be caused by “hybrid” tropical systems forming just offshore.

Forward to late September/early October when ECM indicates a lot of rain across the tropics and western half of the North Atlantic basin (Fig 2). Implications are that a very busy and unusually late peak of season occurs at this time featuring Cape Verde storms, long-distance travelers and Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico systems. The northeast Gulf of Mexico, Florida and coastal Southeast are favored landfall targets.

Fig. 2: ECM week 4-6 ahead precipitation anomalies across the North Atlantic tropics/subtropics.