Why Is Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea Lacking TC’s So Far?

Climate Impact Company Week 2-to-5 Tropical Outlook

Issued: Wednesday August 27, 2025

Early-to-mid September TC risk vicinity of Florida and Gulf of Mexico for mid-to-late September. Confidence 2.5 on 1-5 scale.

Chart of the day: Why is the Gulf and Caribbean quiet so far?

Discussion: The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea have been exceptionally quiet regarding tropical cyclone activity through late August despite moderately warmer than normal ocean surface temperatures. The primary reason for the lack of tropical cyclone activity is the dry mid-troposphere. The dryness in this region is compensation for a wet mid-troposphere across the eastern tropical Pacific and eastern half of the North Atlantic tropics.

Week-2 Valid August 31-September 7, 2025: Rain off East Coast but not TC.

Discussion: Next week, ECM and CFS V2 agree on a wet pattern off the U.S. East Coast. The rain is likely not related to a tropical cyclone. The models are split on whether the Mid-Atlantic is wet (or not) with CFS V2 favoring widespread rain. The overnight operational ECM favors the wetter scenario. There is risk of a tropical system developing in the deep tropics of the central North Atlantic.

Week 3 Valid September 7-14, 2025: Possible tropical system Florida and vicinity; low confidence.

Discussion: The second week of September brings a wet pattern to Florida and vicinity. ECM is more favorable for a tropical event western Caribbean to eastern Gulf of Mexico. The eastern tropical North Atlantic is wet, but models are not convincing of a tropical system.

Week 4 Valid September 14-21, 2025: Gulf of Mexico risk.

Discussion: Both ECM and CFS V2 are agreeable to a wet regime, possibly due to a tropical cyclone, in the Gulf of Mexico. ECM is tropically active in the eastern tropics while CFS V2 doubts that activity.

Week 5 Valid September 21-28, 2025: Gulf of Mexico risk.

Discussion: Once again, the ECM and CFS V2 are only agreeable on wet weather and possible tropical cyclone risk in the Gulf of Mexico.