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Climate Impact Company Gas/Power Report
Issued: Monday January 5, 2026
Headline: Updating Europe HDD forecasts; Cold Mid-winter! Adjusting February colder.
Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company Europe selected cities HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season.
Discussion: Europe-East continued a colder bias compared to Europe-West during DEC-25 averaging exactly between the 30-year/10-year normal while Europe-West was surprisingly moderately warmer than the 10-year normal (Fig. 1). NOV-25 was much cooler for Europe-East. The outlook for JAN-26 is cold. The first half of JAN-26 is cold for most of Europe (except Portugal/Spain). The cold is stronger than the 30-year normal, especially East Europe. The Europe-West chill is slightly colder than last year (Fig. 2) and much colder than the last 2 mid-winter regimes for Europe-East (Fig. 3). Historically, cold January is followed by a cold February in Europe. Climate models are mild. The FEB-26 forecast is adjusted colder based on analogs. The March forecast is milder and unchanged from the previous outlook.
Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company Europe-West selected cities HDD forecast for the 2025-26 winter season.
Fig. 3: The Climate Impact Company Europe-East selected cities HDD forecast for the 2025-26 winter season.