Sunspot Activity Running Well Above Forecast in October 2021

Discussion: The sunspot value for October 2021 is near 50 and well above the projected values from the September 10^th forecast including the 95^th percentile curve (Fig. 1). Forecasts vary for peak intensity of solar cycle projected to occur ins 2024-2025. The most conservative forecast which favors another relatively inactive solar maximum, similar to the solar cycle 24 peak is provided by NASA and indicates a maximum value of 115-120 (Fig. 2). Other forecasts are less conservative (140 in Fig. 1) while the upper limit forecast would feature an all-time record. So far, solar cycle intensity is well above the forecast projection.

Fig. 1: Probabilistic sunspot number forecast for solar cycle 25. Note that the October 2021 value is running much higher than the 95th percentile projection. Also note that a sunspot number of 240 at solar peak would be an allt0time record.  

Fig. 2: The NASA sunspot number forecast for solar cycle 25 and current monthly observation plot.