Very Dry Pattern Forecast to Return to Much of Europe

Highlight: Very dry pattern forecast to return to much of Europe.

Fig. 1: ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates a dry regime is ahead!

Discussion: Over-the-weekend all forecast models indicated a harsh dry trend across much of Europe through the next 15 days including the ECM ENS (Fig. 1). The issue is a stalled wet upper trough off Western Europe compensated for by a broad upper ridge pattern in Europe. The widespread dryness is a pattern change as areas of rain were observed last week in parts of U.K., France, Germany, and Poland (Fig. 2). Consequently, the Rhine River forecast for water level into early November which recovered slightly in recent days while remaining critically low is likely to lower again (Fig. 3). The latest ECM week 3-4 outlook maintains high pressure over central and south portions of Europe implying the developing widespread dry pattern is likely to last well into November (Fig. 4).

Fig. 2: Last week’s percent of normal rainfall observations across Europe.

Fig. 3: The latest Rhine River water level forecast into early November.

Fig. 4: The ECM week 3-4 ahead upper air forecast across Europe.