CIC and NOAA NOV/DEC/JAN 2022-23 Climate Forecast Comparison

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Discussion: Earlier today, NOAA/CPC released their long-lead probability climate forecasts extending to early winter 2023-24. The outlook for NOV/DEC/JAN 2022-23 is compared with the Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) forecast.

The CIC-CA outlook for NOV/DEC/JAN 2022-23 indicates anomalous warmth across the Canadian Prairies, Great Plains and East-central U.S. plus the Southwest States. New England and Southeast Canada are also milder than normal (Fig. 1). By comparison, the NOAA/CPC outlook indicates the likelihood of warmer than normal temperature across California, the Southwest U.S., and the South States plus the East Seaboard (Fig. 2). The Midwest States (Ohio Valley) are the most likely location to receive early winter chill. The forecast is agreeable except CIC-CA is warmer in the Canadian Prairies while NOAA/CPC is warmer in the Gulf region.

The precipitation outlook by CIC-CA reveals dryness across the northwest Gulf States and the immediate West Coast (Fig. 3). The NOAA/CPC outlook is wetter than CIC-CA in the Northwest with a larger aerial coverage of dry risk across the southern states (Fig. 4).

The NOAA/CPC seasonal drought outlook (Fig. 5) expands drought into the Southeast States while eroding any Midwest U.S. dry risk. The Northwest U.S. drought is also forecast to ease.

The CIC-CA forecast is generated by a global SSTA-based forecast process and weighs equally mid-latitude SSTA and ENSO. The NOAA/CPC forecast is more biased by ENSO. Both forecast processes utilize optimum climate normal (OCN).

Fig. 1-4: Climate Impact Company constructed analog/NOAA probabilistic temperature/precipitation outlooks for NOV/DEC/JAN 2022-23.

Fig. 5: NOAA/CPC seasonal drought outlook valid through Jan. 31, 2023.