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Climate Impact Company Week 2-to-4 China Outlook
Issued: Thursday February 19, 2026
Headline: Cold outbreak after heavy rain for China.
Charts of the day: Busy 6-10-day forecast across Asia.
Discussion: AIFS ENS indicates an arctic air mass loitering across Siberia in the 6-10-day period while an upper trough embedded in the subtropical jet stream is sufficiently intense to bring heavy rain to East China and Japan.
Week-2 Valid March 1-8, 2026: Moderated cold outbreak into China.
Discussion: AIFS ENS has shown the best skill scores for East Asia in the 11-15-day period and is utilized to make the week-2 ahead forecast. Indicated is the big chill in Siberia moderating while surging into China with more wet weather on the China Coast and rain/snow well inland.
Week-3 Valid March 8-15, 2026: China temperatures moderate.
Discussion: Residual chill with snow Mongolia and eastward while Southeast Asia is cool.
Week-4 Valid March 15-22, 2026: China shifts warmer than indicated by ECM.
Discussion: ECM forecasts a broad upper ridge across Western China. Dryness is forecast for much of China, temperatures may be warmer than shown.