The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast for South America during meteorological summer 2022-23 indicates persistent anomalous heat and dryness in Argentina where flash drought is quite possible. The dryness extends to Southeast Brazil although less consistent. Far Southeast Brazil has a drought risk for summer 2022-23. The remainder of Brazil Crop Areas is normally wet with diminished drought risk.

The NAWH trough is extending eastward and will now produce another high impact weather regime across Western Europe…excessive rainfall! The GFS 15-day rainfall forecast indicates several in. of rain with high spots >5 in. for Western and Southern Europe for the second half of November. Farther downstream, a cold and snowy trough develops in Western Russia next week.

La Nina is moderate-to-strong enjoying a 3rd peak in intensity of the 2020-22 cold ENSO regime. However, dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models are agreeable to La Nina ending in early 2023 coinciding with demise of negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD). However, the La Nina climate is unusually strong and could linger to the mid-point of 2023. El Nino remains a possibility for later 2023.

The daily southern oscillation index crashed to -3.6 earlier today. The daily -SOI value is the lowest since Aug. 17, 2022, a one-day event. The last very negative SOI regime dates back to June 2020. The -SOI may last a few days due to passage of Madden Julian oscillation episode. Moderate-to-strong La Nina presence may weaken slightly during this transaction.