During the past 30 days, the percent normal rainfall across Europe has become prohibitively dry. Consequently, soil moisture deficits have broadened and intensified. The anomalous temperature was extremely hot (3-7F) for west and south portions of Europe during the past 30 days helping to accelerate drought.

A semi-permanent upper-level low-pressure trough located over southeast New Mexico during early July entrained tropical moisture off the East Pacific Ocean and western Gulf of Mexico creating the perfect set-up for persistent heavy rains. The development of the semi-permanent low-pressure area was potentially related to the unusually wet monsoon pattern of early summer. The early July rainfall observations across Central Texas indicate widespread >10-inch regions with high spots exceeding 20 inches.

Yet another location struck by marine heatwave enhanced air temperature during late JUN/early JUL as East China (and Japan) have turned excessive excessively hot (and dry). During the 7-day period ending July 3, 2025, temperature anomalies range from 2-4C >normal for East China and South Japan and near 8C >normal in parts of Northeast China.

NOAA/SPC projects strong thunderstorms across the East and Southeast U.S. for today. Included is a severe weather risk caused by damaging wind potential in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The event is lengthy, mid-afternoon to midnight, therefore repeat events can cause excessive rain and flooding most likely in the Washington/Baltimore area.