The NOV-24 global soil moisture anomaly analysis by NOAA reveals strongest drought across the Southwest U.S. while wettest conditions stretch across China to Pakistan. During the past 3 months, a drier trend intensified Southwest U.S./Northern Mexico drought. A drier trend also stretched from the Midwest U.S. to the Coastal Northeast U.S. Corridor. Western Canada trends somewhat wetter.

A look at the primary climate controllers through the middle third of December yields an active and moderate to strong Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) across Maritime Continent. MJO phase_5 has a strong warming influence on the U.S. climate which is in the current medium-range forecast.

Both GFS and ECM regenerate a cold upper trough in the Northeast U.S. to Quebec sector as the middle third of January approaches. The forecast explains why a surge in U.S. heating demand is projected by CFS V2 and ECM for the week of Jan. 3-9.

A colder pattern across West/Central Europe emerges in the medium range according to ECM. During the colder transition, a large area of precipitation centered on Central Europe is indicated. As the colder weather strengthens, precipitation is over to mostly snow for Central to Southeast Europe and the Southern Mountains.