NOAA ENSO forecast models continue to show uncertainty regarding El Nino 2023-24 strength. The NCEP CFS V2 remains the most aggressive forecast while several other models maintain the current moderate intensity with no additional strengthening. Note that a reversal to La Nina is indicated for the middle of 2024.

The meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) 2023 CDD is 887 ranking the 8th coolest of this century. Only Texas and the Upper Midwest have observed warmer than normal temperatures so far during summer 2023 while California and the Intermountain West are cool and the East near normal.

A warm mid-winter pattern across South America this year thanks to an amplified upper-level ridge centered just-off the North Coast of Chile and inspired by aggressive anomalous warmth of the northeast South Pacific Ocean off the South America Coast and vigorous El Nino warming of the eastern tropical Pacific.

The Nino34 SSTA warmed to +1.2C last week as oceanic El Nino strengthens to moderate intensity. The ENSO climate budged toward El Nino in July as supported by a 2-to-3-week period of a negative southern oscillation index (-SOI) although SOI has shifted into weak positive phase the past 2 days.