Strong conflicting signals are presented within the ENSO System during the mid-point of the ENSO seasonal prediction barrier. The Nino12 SSTA region off the northwest coast of South America has warmed rapidly and impressively as daily SSTA in this region is approaching a whopping +3.0! However, despite the super warming, the Nino34 SSTA region covering the east-central equatorial Pacific where ENSO phase is monitored is a resilient neutral phase.

In March, the subsurface equatorial Pacific warmed dramatically. Each NINO region of the equatorial Pacific subsurface is now in support of an El Nino development trend. The change from February is dramatic…much warmer! Normally, the observational trend of subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific can foreshadow a possible phase change of ENSO.

Winter Storm Warnings are issued for the eastern Dakota’s and northern half of Minnesota. A Blizzard Warning is issued for western South Dakota. The GFS indicates a 6-18-inch snowstorm ahead featuring high wind which will push 2-3-foot drifts of snow. Blizzard conditions are likely to extend northeastward.

After a whopping 738 severe weather reports in the Midwest States yesterday with Illinois hardest hit, a large severe weather and windstorm shifts into the East U.S. today. Two bands of severe weather squalls cross the Mid-Atlantic, one this morning and another by early evening. Wind gusts >70 mph affect the central Appalachian States with gusts to 60 mph at the shoreline today into this evening. More high wind for New England tomorrow.