Oceanic El Nino continues to slowly strengthen and is now at moderate intensity. Subsurface warming is convening in the eastern equatorial Pacific to provide more ammunition to strengthen El Nino. However, the sustained 1-2-month-long negative southern oscillation index required to generate an El Nino climate has not yet materialized.

The historic California, Southwest U.S., and Texas heatwave of mid-July will expand across the U.S. to close the month. The risk of >100F shifts across much of the Great Plains to the Mid-south States in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, the risk of >100F shifts eastward through the southern Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic States.

After a relatively dry and cool spring in the Northeast U.S. Corridor, the weather pattern has changed dramatically. During July so far, the Northeast U.S. has shifted 1-3C warmer than normal while flooding rainfall events have emerged. The rainfall events are producing historical flooding in Vermont and widening toward central and southern New England today.