The JUL/AUG multivariate ENSO index (MEI) failed to indicate evolution of an El Nino climate despite the robust oceanic El Nino presence across the equatorial East Pacific. Consequently, adjustments of the ENSO 2023-24 forecast considering MEI indicate that despite a robust warm equatorial East Pacific SSTA regime continuing to strengthen during Q4/2023, the attendant El Nino climate is likely moderate.

During JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 large regions of drying soils and/or worsening drought outnumbered wet regions by approximately 15 to 4. The tendency for dryness in the northern hemisphere is linked to above normal mid-troposphere high pressure associated with large areas of anomalous warm mid-latitude oceans including marine heatwaves (MHW). In the southern hemisphere, oncoming drier soils are mostly related to a developing El Nino climate.

Late season drought concerns regenerate in the Midwest U.S. as forecasts trend drier while a heatwave rambles on across Western Europe into next week before shifting eastward toward the Black Sea region. Southeast Brazil extreme rain and flooding shifts southward slightly and Australia has their first heatwave of the early warm season.

El Nino 2023-24 continues to develop and oceanic El Nino is now classified as moderate-to-strong in intensity. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast projects additional strengthening with peak intensity in December followed by weakening early in 2024. El Nino 2023-24 ends by next May and is followed by the return of a weak La Nina later next year.