The upcoming storm for late weekend into early next week on the East Coast is an El Nino storm. Problems: 1.) Develops at a low latitude over very warm water therefore unusually low pressure (980-985 MB off Mid-Atlantic Coast) emerges; 2.) Unusually low pressure running into a high-pressure area southeast of Canada will create hurricane force wind gusts northeast and east of the storm center possibly affecting southern New England and Long Island; 3.) Because the storm was born over warm water, an unusual heavy rain is likely for the Northeast Corridor.

As meteorological summer unfolds, concern regarding Brazilian drought is ongoing. One steady development in recent weeks is the tendency for forecast models to over-forecast rainfall in the medium-range particularly in the 11-15-day period. During the past 7 days, the wet bias has increased.

The rainfall pattern during the past 30 days is very wet in Southeast Brail/Northeast Argentina and Western Brazil while most of the remaining sections of Brazil are dry. The influence of this regime plus the longer-term climate is to produce deep (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomaly deficits across Northern Brazil, Southwest Brazil, and Interior East Brazil.

ECM “weeklies” indicate development of a stormy and cold upper trough in the Central/East U.S. as the middle third of January arrives. Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecasts support this projection. Recent positive phase reflection index also supports this potential pattern change.